In recent weeks, narratives claiming that the Covid-19 pandemic had been planned since 2017 have resurfaced on social media.
A number of posts on Facebook and Instagram accuse Bill Gates and the late Jeffrey Epstein of having devised a pandemic scenario long before the SARS-CoV-2 virus was detected in Wuhan in late 2019.
This narrative gained further traction after the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) released millions of pages of investigative documents known as the Epstein Files in late 2025.
The allegations are based on a document titled EFTA02657725.pdf, which contains correspondence related to a pandemic simulation based on a virus variant.

Some parties have concluded that the existence of this document is proof that Covid-19 is not a natural event, but rather the result of planning. However, is this really the case? Here are the facts.
What is the Epstein Files?
The Epstein Files are a collection of official documents resulting from an investigation by United States law enforcement agencies, including the Department of Justice and the FBI, into Jeffrey Epstein’s criminal activities.
Epstein was a billionaire convicted of child sex crimes and human trafficking. He died in a New York prison on August 10, 2019.
On December 19, 2025, US authorities released more than 3.5 million pages of documents to the public. The archives include Epstein’s flight logs, phone books and contact lists, digital forensic evidence in the form of photos and videos, FBI investigative notes, and jury and trial transcripts.
Several world figures are listed in the files, including Donald Trump, Prince Andrew, Bill Gates, Hillary Clinton, and Elon Musk.
However, the appearance of a name in investigative documents does not automatically prove involvement in Epstein’s crimes or in the planning of the pandemic.
2017 “Strain Pandemic Simulation” Email Documents
On the official DOJ website, there are two documents related to the pandemic simulation, EFTA02381427 and EFTA02657725. Both contain correspondence titled “bgc3 Deliverables and Scope” dated March 3, 2017, involving Bill Gates, Larry Cohen, and Jeffrey Epstein.
The documents originate from BGC3, now known as Gates Ventures, a think tank owned by Bill Gates focused on global health, technology, and development.
The emails contain five proposed work points in the fields of health and neurotechnology. The fifth point mentions technical recommendations regarding a strain pandemic simulation based on a virus variant. The emails were then forwarded to Epstein, who responded curtly with an “okay.”
However, the correspondence contains no evidence that the simulation was related to SARS-CoV-2, let alone a plan to create an outbreak.
In an interview with 9News Australia on Wednesday (February 4, 2026), Bill Gates expressed regret over his relationship with Epstein and called the circulating narrative a fabrication. He emphasized that pandemic simulations are a common scientific practice, not evidence of a conspiracy.
DOJ Document Clarification January 2026
The subsequent release of millions of pages of Epstein documents on January 30, 2026, did include various emails, internal notes, and drafts of Epstein’s writings.
However, investigations by several international media outlets found no evidence of a pandemic plan, virus simulation, or global health scheme involving Epstein and Gates in the context of COVID-19 planning.
Some documents mentioning Gates turned out to be drafts of Epstein’s personal emails that were never sent and contained unsubstantiated allegations, as confirmed by numerous independent reports.
Pandemic Simulations Become Standard Practice in Global Health
In epidemiology, pandemic simulations are a crucial tool for testing the preparedness of health systems for potential outbreaks. Simulations are conducted using computer models to predict the spread of viruses, cross-agency scenario exercises, and to evaluate the response capacity of hospitals and medical personnel.
Several pandemic simulations conducted before Covid-19 include:
Event 201 (2019)
A global pandemic simulation exercise organized by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the World Economic Forum, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The goal was to test global coordination in the face of a major outbreak.
Exercise Cygnus (2016) – England
A national simulation in London involving approximately 950 personnel from across ministries tested the response to the influenza threat.
H7N9 Simulation in Indonesia (2017)
Conducted in South Tangerang even though the H7N9 virus had not been detected in humans or birds in Indonesia at that time. This indicates that the simulation was conducted as a precautionary measure, not as a response to a real outbreak.
In addition to field simulations, scientists also used mathematical modeling that took into account population size, transmission rates, hospital capacity, and the availability of medical personnel. All of this is standard procedure in global health risk management.
The Origins of Covid-19 Based on Scientific Research
Several scientific studies have concluded that Covid-19 was not man-made. In February 2020, the journal Nature reported that the first case of Covid-19 emerged in Wuhan on December 26, 2019.
A study titled “A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin” found the virus to have high genetic similarity to bat coronaviruses and SARS-CoV.
Another study titled “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2” concluded that SARS-CoV-2 is the seventh coronavirus to infect humans and likely emerged naturally.
Initially, there was debate regarding the scenario of virus transmission from a laboratory and human contact with a zoonotic disease. However, an article titled “The origins of the COVID-19 pandemic: A brief overview” asserts that it is confident that the coronavirus was initially transmitted to humans by animals and not through a laboratory leak.
History shows that health preparedness is crucial in determining the impact of a pandemic. Smallpox was successfully eradicated in 1977 thanks to global vaccination. The Spanish Flu (1918–1920) infected approximately one-third of the world’s population and killed tens to hundreds of millions of people due to the medical limitations of the time.
This fact underscores the importance of pandemic simulations and virology research. The goal is not to create an outbreak, but rather to minimize the impact when one actually occurs.
Epstein Files Claims and COVID-19 Planning Are Baseless
Based on fact-checking and review of official documents, claims that the COVID-19 pandemic was planned as early as 2017 through a strain of pandemic simulation in emails between Bill Gates and Jeffrey Epstein have no scientific or legal basis.
Pandemic simulations are standard practice in global health. There are no documents in the Epstein Files that prove Covid-19 was the result of human planning or engineering.